Robert X. Cringely has an interesting perspective of the PC era:
http://www.cringely.com/2012/06/30/life-personal-computer/

If you extrapolate Robert’s thoughts to other computing environments then you would say:

– The mainframe is dead – long gone buried. Oh wait, it lives and is doing very well.

– The super-computer is dead. Well, it almost died but with Linux transplanted as the OS of choice (over 90% of super computers use Linux), it is doing very well.

– The mid-range computer is dead. Oh wait, Unix is doing very well.

Mainframes, super computers and mid-range computers are not ‘every person’ computers, so they will not fit the standard consumer model that Robert is referencing.

Now there are 3 operating systems (OS) that I think are getting boxed into a corner with few options: Windows, Solaris and HP-UX.

– HP-UX is running on a CPU (Intel Itanium) that is not leading edge technology and is outdated. Most companies are switching to Linux, so that they can run an OS on the latest CPUs from Intel and AMD.

– Solaris spent too long going nowhere when Sun was going down hill. Now Oracle has Solaris, but nobody seems to care – its not like the dot com days. Plus Oracle expects premium dollars for things they sell, so it makes the decision between Solaris and Linux very easy.

– Windows has 90% of the desktop market, a modest server market and next to nothing for the mobile market. A few years ago, the gurus said that the world was going to be ruled by ‘NetBooks’ and then along came the iPad and Android tablets and the switch was astonishing and fast. Consumers are using their smart-phones and tablets as computers and not bothering to get a desktop PC or laptop (or NetBook). This will have a dramatic effect on Microsoft.

So, what do I see for the future?

– HP-UX will need to switch to a new CPU sooner rather than later but even if they do switch, HP-UX days are numbered. Oracle has stopped supporting their DB on HP-UX and other companies are also stopping support of their products on HP-UX. So, HP-UX’s days are numbered.

– Solaris will eventually die because there is nothing compelling about it but because Oracle has deep pockets, it will take a long time. Plus Oracle is now doing the Microsoft bundling strategy of selling both Solaris and Oracle DB and/or WebLogic to try and keep Solaris relevant. It should work for a while but not forever.

– Windows will be the king of desktop PCs and laptops for a long time to come but the real gotcha is that consumers will stop buying desktops and laptops and instead buy newer, more powerful smart-phones and tablets. Also, Microsoft’s Windows 8 tablet strategy is just weird. There will be 2 different Windows 8 tablets: Intel and ARM. If you buy a Windows 8 ARM tablet, you cannot use ‘apps’ build for Windows 8 Intel tablet. This is going to drive people crazy (and developers too).

The winner is going to the kings of the smart-phone and/or tablet market and right now that is iOS (Apple) and Android (which is what Robert highlighted in his article). Both iOS and Android are ‘first-movers’ in the smart-phone and tablet markets and have established both themselves and what is expected of the device. Will Windows 8 or BlackBerry 10 make a difference in the smart-phone or tablet market, I don’t think so. They will be niche players as Microsoft does not understand (or does not want to understand) the mobile market and RIM is so late with BlackBerry 10 that it is totally irrelevant now.

I think there will be another surprise winner in years to come: Google’s ChromeBook. ChromeBook appears to be that holy-grail ‘thin-client’ that actually functions the way that consumers want. So, I am pretty sure that businesses will start to seriously think of replacing laptops (and possibly desktops) with ChromeBooks. If they do, Microsoft is in for a world of hurt.

That’s my 2 cents.

Regards,
Roger Lacroix
Capitalware Inc.